A burgeoning debate is underway in the tech world, pitting the transformative potential of quantum computing against the current dominance of artificial intelligence (AI). While AI has captured the public imagination and industry investment, experts are increasingly questioning whether quantum computing could ultimately prove to be the more impactful technology.
Key Takeaways
Quantum computing, though complex and in its early stages, promises computational power far exceeding current capabilities, potentially revolutionising fields like medicine, materials science, and cryptography.
AI, while already integrated into many aspects of life, faces its own challenges, including "hallucinations" and the concentration of power among large tech firms.
The two technologies are not mutually exclusive; quantum computing could significantly enhance AI capabilities in the future.
Both fields are subject to hype, with concerns about potential market bubbles in both quantum and AI stocks.
The Quantum Enigma
Quantum mechanics, the science underpinning quantum computing, is notoriously difficult to grasp. This complexity has contributed to its lower profile compared to AI. However, major tech players like Microsoft and Google are investing heavily, signalling its growing importance. Unlike AI, which is largely software-based and requires hardware, quantum computing is fundamentally about new forms of hardware, such as specialised sensors and computers.
Experts like Brian Hopkins from Forrester caution that while the potential is immense, "the jury is still out." Significant advancements in quantum hardware and further research are needed to fully harness quantum effects for applications like AI. The quantum sector is projected to be worth up to $97 billion by 2035, a substantial figure, though dwarfed by AI's projected trillions.
Challenges and Innovations
Both quantum computing and AI grapple with errors. AI tools are known for "hallucinations," while quantum systems are susceptible to environmental disruptions like light and noise due to the fragility of quantum states. This fragility necessitates extreme conditions, such as ultra-low temperatures, though innovations like using synthetic diamonds for qubits are bringing operations closer to room temperature.
Currently, there are only an estimated 200 quantum computers globally, existing primarily in laboratories. Despite this nascent stage, bold claims are being made. Rajeeb Hazra, CEO of Quantinuum, believes quantum computing's applications could be "as big if not bigger than AI." The potential applications are staggering: solving in seconds calculations that would take supercomputers the age of the universe, accelerating drug discovery, enabling personalised medicine, and improving chemical processes for agriculture.
Real-World Impacts and Security Concerns
Quantum sensors are already in use, for instance, in atomic clocks and experimental brain scanning devices that overcome the limitations of traditional scanners. A "quantum compass" is being trialled as an alternative to GPS, offering greater resilience against jamming and spoofing, crucial for navigation and financial transactions. The National Grid is exploring quantum research for load shedding, and Airbus is using quantum algorithms for more efficient cargo loading.
A significant concern surrounding quantum computing is its potential to break current encryption methods. The ability of quantum computers to rapidly test all possible combinations could render much of today's secured data vulnerable. This has led to a "harvest now, decrypt later" strategy by some nations, stockpiling encrypted data for future decryption. The advent of a fully operational quantum computer, sometimes referred to as "Q-day," is estimated by some to be around 2030. Companies are already developing quantum-resistant encryption, but this cannot protect data encrypted prior to its implementation.
The Venture Capital Perspective
Venture capitalists are also weighing in. Alexa von Tobel of Inspired Capital sees quantum computing as a potential "bigger unlock than AGI" (Artificial General Intelligence). She notes that quantum computing is where AI was in 2015 – a field with significant research and emerging practical applications. Von Tobel highlights that the scarcity of true quantum experts makes it easier to identify genuine talent compared to the crowded AI field. She also points out that the immense compute demands of AI could reshape infrastructure, potentially increasing the likelihood of quantum computing's success.
Actuarial Considerations
For actuaries, AI is currently more influential, assisting with programming, drafting, and data analysis, though it requires careful error checking. AI can streamline underwriting and claims processing. Quantum computing's impact on actuaries is expected to be longer-term, with quantum annealing already available for optimisation problems. Gate-based quantum computing is still years away from commercial use. However, potential applications in asset and liability management and capital modelling are being explored, promising orders of magnitude improvements in complex simulations and modelling.